Penerapan Statistical Straight Line Method Pada Sistem Pendukung Keputusan Prediksi Harga Pangan

Fithriah Musadat, LM. Fajar Israwan, Hamid Wijaya

Abstract


 The existence of fluctuating food price changes can cause losses for both producers and consumers. For that, we need a method that can predict prices within a certain period of time. One method that can be used is the Statistical Straight Line method. The purpose of this study is to predict food prices within the next 1 month and 1-year using training data. To test the accuracy of price predictions, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is used with the actual value. The calculation results show that prices that change in value that are not drastic each month have a MAPE value of less than 10%, while prices that change drastically every month have a MAPE value greater than 10%.

Keywords


Prices, Food, Predictions, Statistical Straight Line

Full Text:

LIHAT PDF

References


R. D. Rahmi, K. Suratiyah, and J. H. Mulyo, “Ketahanan Pangan Rumah Tangga Petani di Kecamatan Ponjong Kabupaten Gunung Kidul,†Agro Ekon., vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 190–201, 2013.

H. V. Nguyen, M. A. Naeem, N. Wichitaksorn, and R. Pears, “A smart system for short-term price prediction using time series models,†Comput. Electr. Eng., vol. 76, pp. 339–352, 2019, DOI: 10.1016/j.compeleceng.2019.04.013.

L. Fajarita et al., “Penerapan Forecasting Stright Line Method Dalam Pengadaan Stok Barang Mendatang,†in Prosiding SINTAK, 2018, pp. 310–317.

F. L. Joutz, “Forecasting CPI Food Prices: An Assessment,†Am. J. Agric. Econ., vol. 79, no. 5, pp. 1681–1685, 1997, doi: 10.2307/1244403.

H. Ahumada and M. Cornejo, “Forecasting food prices: The case of corn, soybeans and wheat,†Int. J. Forecast., vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 838–848, 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.01.002.

B. Eden, W. Asrul, and S. Zuhriyah, “Sistem Informasi Peramalan Harga Pangan Dengan Menggunakan Metode Naïve Bayes Di Kota Makassar,†J. Sist. Inf. dan Teknol. Inf., vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 163–171, 2018.

Rachman, HPS, "Metode Analisis Harga Pangan", Badan Ketahanan Pangan, 78-85, 2005, Bogor.

Wiyanti, DT., Pulungan R, "Peramalan Deret Waktu Menggunakan Model Fungsi Basis Radial (RBF) dan Auto Regresseive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)", Jurnal MIPA VOl. 35 No. 2, 175-182, 2012.

Fajarita L., Hati EN, "Penerapan Forecasting Stright Line Method Dalam Pengadaan Stok Barang Mendatang Studi Kasus : PT. Bina Karya Kusuma, Prosiding SINTAK, ISBN : 978-602-8557-20-7, 310-317, 2018.

Gusfadilah, A., Setiawan, BD., Rahayudi, B., Implementasi Metode Exponsial Smoothing Untuk Prediksi Bobot Kargo Bulanan Di Bandara Internasional I Gusti Ngurah Rai, Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Vol.3 No.2, 1875-1882, 2019.

Sungkawa, I., Megasari, RT., Penerapan Ukuran Ketetapan Nilai Ramalan Data Deret Waktu Dalam Seleksi Model Peramalan Volume Penjualan PT. Satriamandiri Citramulia, ComTech Vol.2 N0.2, 636-645, 2011.

Chang, PC., Wang, YW., Liou, CH., The Development of a Weighted for PCB sales forecasting, Expert System with Application, 86-96, 2007.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.55340/jiu.v9i1.330

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Editorial Address :

Program Studi Teknik Informatika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Dayanu Ikhsanuddin Jl. Dayanu Ikhsanuddin no.124 Baubau, Sulawesi Tenggara 

Jurnal Informatika by Program Studi Teknik Informatika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Dayanu Ikhsanuddin Baubau, Indonesia is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Based on work at  https://ejournal.unidayan.ac.id/index.php/JIU

503 Service Unavailable

Service Unavailable

The server is temporarily unable to service your request due to maintenance downtime or capacity problems. Please try again later.

Additionally, a 503 Service Unavailable error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.